Omni

Effective Rake in 2016, Part 1

by Omni Poker Labs - May 19, 2016

Given recent events surrounding PokerStars, we thought it'd be a good time to have a look at the competition. In particular, we wanted to analyze effective rake (i.e. factoring in rakeback and reward programs).

In this first part of the series we're going to investigate several popular Sit & Go formats:

at Stars (PokerStars/FullTilt), WPN (America's Cardroom, BlackChip Poker, etc.), iPoker, and the MPN (e.g. Betsson).

In future parts of the series, we'll look at other sites, formats, and cash games.

EDIT: Please leave comments in the 2p2, Tiltbook, or Reddit threads.

TL;DR

  • Overall Stars is still best if you have at least 30% rakeback
  • WPN (with a 27% rakeback deal) is close to Stars overall and considerably better than Stars at low-mid stakes if you don't have a high VIP status on Stars
  • WPN is best for 6-max hypers up to the 100s
  • iPoker is best for low stakes spins (≤ 10s) and nosebleed headsup hypers (above 1000s)
  • MPN is not competitive. Generally, you'd need at least a 0.5% better win rate to get an ROI similar to the other sites

Methodology

We gathered the buyin data directly from the game clients in may 2016. For rakeback, we used the following numbers:

  • Stars: 30% (new Supernova)
  • WPN: 27%
  • iPoker: 40%
  • MPN: 30%

These rakeback deals are straightforward to get (i.e. no need to message anyone on 2p2, just sign up via any of several easy to find rakeback affiliates).

iPoker skins generally advertise 60%+ rakeback deals, but they use a "source-based" system which we don't model in detail. As an approximation, we use 40% rakeback which is close to the worst-case of 0.5 * 60% and seems to be what people get in practice. Any feedback on this point is appreciated!

As an aside, we recommend RakeTheRake. Feel free to use our referral code when signing up: 1155121

All of the R code used to generate the tables displayed in this article is available on GitHub. We tried to make it as readable as possible, please have a look.

Headsup Turbos

We'll first explain the data, then present the data, and finally draw some conclusions.

In the tables below, pp is the prizepool contribution and rake is the pre-rakeback rake (as shown in most clients, buyin = pp + rake). effective rake is the post-rakeback rake, rake % is the pre-rakeback rake expressed as a percentage of the buyin, and effective % is the effective rake expressed as a percentage of the buyin.
breakeven is the winrate needed to break even; the ROI N% columns indicate the ROI achieved with the given winrate. These values assume that you're only paying the effective rake (i.e. you're Supernova on Stars or you have a rakeback deal on the other sites).

Stars

pp rake effective rake rake % effective % breakeven ROI 51% ROI 52% ROI 53% ROI 54% ROI 55%
6.67 0.33 0.23 4.71 3.35 51.73 -1.41 0.52 2.45 4.38 6.32
14.39 0.61 0.43 4.07 2.88 51.48 -0.94 1.00 2.95 4.89 6.83
28.78 1.22 0.85 4.07 2.88 51.48 -0.94 1.00 2.95 4.89 6.83
57.67 2.33 1.63 3.88 2.75 51.41 -0.81 1.14 3.08 5.03 6.97
96.32 3.68 2.58 3.68 2.60 51.34 -0.66 1.29 3.24 5.19 7.13
193.85 6.15 4.30 3.08 2.17 51.11 -0.22 1.74 3.70 5.65 7.61
291.25 8.75 6.12 2.92 2.06 51.05 -0.10 1.86 3.82 5.78 7.73
487.60 12.40 8.68 2.48 1.75 50.89 0.22 2.18 4.15 6.11 8.08
979.20 20.80 14.56 2.08 1.47 50.74 0.51 2.48 4.45 6.42 8.39
1962.50 37.50 26.25 1.88 1.32 50.67 0.65 2.63 4.60 6.57 8.55
4937.00 63.00 44.10 1.26 0.89 50.45 1.10 3.08 5.06 7.04 9.03

WPN

pp rake effective rake rake % effective % breakeven ROI 51% ROI 52% ROI 53% ROI 54% ROI 55%
5.50 0.25 0.18 4.35 3.21 51.66 -1.28 0.66 2.60 4.53 6.47
11.00 0.50 0.36 4.35 3.21 51.66 -1.28 0.66 2.60 4.53 6.47
22.00 1.00 0.73 4.35 3.21 51.66 -1.28 0.66 2.60 4.53 6.47
33.00 1.50 1.09 4.35 3.21 51.66 -1.28 0.66 2.60 4.53 6.47
55.00 2.50 1.82 4.35 3.21 51.66 -1.28 0.66 2.60 4.53 6.47
110.00 4.50 3.29 3.93 2.90 51.49 -0.96 0.98 2.93 4.87 6.81
220.00 9.00 6.57 3.93 2.90 51.49 -0.96 0.98 2.93 4.87 6.81
330.00 12.00 8.76 3.51 2.59 51.33 -0.64 1.31 3.26 5.21 7.16
550.00 20.00 14.60 3.51 2.59 51.33 -0.64 1.31 3.26 5.21 7.16
1100.00 30.00 21.90 2.65 1.95 51.00 0.01 1.97 3.93 5.89 7.85

iPoker

pp rake effective rake rake % effective % breakeven ROI 51% ROI 52% ROI 53% ROI 54% ROI 55%
4.65 0.35 0.21 7.00 4.32 52.26 -2.41 -0.49 1.42 3.33 5.25
9.40 0.60 0.36 6.00 3.69 51.91 -1.76 0.16 2.09 4.02 5.94
18.80 1.20 0.72 6.00 3.69 51.91 -1.76 0.16 2.09 4.02 5.94
28.30 1.70 1.02 5.67 3.48 51.80 -1.55 0.38 2.31 4.24 6.17
47.50 2.50 1.50 5.00 3.06 51.58 -1.12 0.82 2.76 4.69 6.63
95.00 5.00 3.00 5.00 3.06 51.58 -1.12 0.82 2.76 4.69 6.63
192.00 8.00 4.80 4.00 2.44 51.25 -0.49 1.46 3.41 5.37 7.32
290.00 10.00 6.00 3.33 2.03 51.03 -0.07 1.89 3.85 5.81 7.77
485.00 15.00 9.00 3.00 1.82 50.93 0.14 2.11 4.07 6.03 8.00
979.00 21.00 12.60 2.10 1.27 50.64 0.70 2.68 4.65 6.63 8.60
1960.00 40.00 24.00 2.00 1.21 50.61 0.77 2.74 4.72 6.69 8.67
4950.00 50.00 30.00 1.00 0.60 50.30 1.39 3.37 5.36 7.35 9.34

MPN

pp rake effective rake rake % effective % breakeven ROI 51% ROI 52% ROI 53% ROI 54% ROI 55%
5.00 0.30 0.21 5.66 4.03 52.10 -2.11 -0.19 1.73 3.65 5.57
10.00 0.60 0.42 5.66 4.03 52.10 -2.11 -0.19 1.73 3.65 5.57
20.00 1.20 0.84 5.66 4.03 52.10 -2.11 -0.19 1.73 3.65 5.57
30.00 1.80 1.26 5.66 4.03 52.10 -2.11 -0.19 1.73 3.65 5.57
50.00 3.00 2.10 5.66 4.03 52.10 -2.11 -0.19 1.73 3.65 5.57
100.00 6.00 4.20 5.66 4.03 52.10 -2.11 -0.19 1.73 3.65 5.57
200.00 8.00 5.60 3.85 2.72 51.40 -0.78 1.17 3.11 5.06 7.00
300.00 12.00 8.40 3.85 2.72 51.40 -0.78 1.17 3.11 5.06 7.00
500.00 15.00 10.50 2.91 2.06 51.05 -0.10 1.86 3.82 5.78 7.74
1000.00 30.00 21.00 2.91 2.06 51.05 -0.10 1.86 3.82 5.78 7.74
Notes:
  • MPN isn't worth playing unless your winrate is at least 0.5% higher there than on other sites
  • Both iPoker and WPN are better than Stars if you don't have a high VIP status
  • iPoker has the lowest nosebleeds rake (1000s +)
  • WPN has lower low and midstakes rake than iPoker (up to 300s)
  • If you have at least 30% rakeback on Stars rake is still lowest there at all stakes below (1000s) and close to iPoker at 1000s+
  • If you have a high VIP level on Stars, play turbos there, otherwise play on WPN
  • If you're a losing or breakeven player, iPoker might be better than WPN (since you'll be able to realize more of your 60% rakeback deal)

Headsup Hypers

Data is the same as for turbos.

Stars

pp rake effective rake rake % effective % breakeven ROI 51% ROI 52% ROI 53% ROI 54% ROI 55%
6.85 0.15 0.10 2.14 1.51 50.77 0.46 2.43 4.40 6.37 8.34
14.69 0.31 0.22 2.07 1.46 50.74 0.52 2.49 4.46 6.43 8.40
29.37 0.63 0.44 2.10 1.48 50.75 0.49 2.46 4.43 6.40 8.37
58.74 1.26 0.88 2.10 1.48 50.75 0.49 2.46 4.43 6.40 8.37
98.12 1.88 1.32 1.88 1.32 50.67 0.65 2.62 4.60 6.57 8.54
196.66 3.34 2.34 1.67 1.17 50.59 0.80 2.78 4.75 6.73 8.71
295.51 4.49 3.14 1.50 1.05 50.53 0.93 2.91 4.88 6.86 8.84
493.34 6.66 4.66 1.33 0.94 50.47 1.05 3.03 5.01 6.99 8.97
988.83 11.17 7.82 1.12 0.78 50.40 1.20 3.18 5.17 7.15 9.14

WPN

pp rake effective rake rake % effective % breakeven ROI 51% ROI 52% ROI 53% ROI 54% ROI 55%
6.00 0.18 0.13 2.91 2.14 51.09 -0.19 1.77 3.73 5.69 7.64
12.00 0.25 0.18 2.04 1.50 50.76 0.47 2.44 4.41 6.38 8.35
24.00 0.50 0.36 2.04 1.50 50.76 0.47 2.44 4.41 6.38 8.35
36.00 0.75 0.55 2.04 1.50 50.76 0.47 2.44 4.41 6.38 8.35
60.00 1.25 0.91 2.04 1.50 50.76 0.47 2.44 4.41 6.38 8.35
120.00 2.25 1.64 1.84 1.35 50.68 0.62 2.60 4.57 6.54 8.51
240.00 4.50 3.29 1.84 1.35 50.68 0.62 2.60 4.57 6.54 8.51
360.00 6.00 4.38 1.64 1.20 50.61 0.77 2.75 4.73 6.70 8.68
600.00 10.00 7.30 1.64 1.20 50.61 0.77 2.75 4.73 6.70 8.68
1200.00 15.00 10.95 1.23 0.90 50.46 1.08 3.06 5.04 7.02 9.01

iPoker

pp rake effective rake rake % effective % breakeven ROI 51% ROI 52% ROI 53% ROI 54% ROI 55%
4.80 0.20 0.12 4.00 2.44 51.25 -0.49 1.46 3.41 5.37 7.32
9.60 0.40 0.24 4.00 2.44 51.25 -0.49 1.46 3.41 5.37 7.32
19.20 0.80 0.48 4.00 2.44 51.25 -0.49 1.46 3.41 5.37 7.32
28.80 1.20 0.72 4.00 2.44 51.25 -0.49 1.46 3.41 5.37 7.32
48.70 1.30 0.78 2.60 1.58 50.80 0.39 2.36 4.33 6.30 8.27
97.50 2.50 1.50 2.50 1.52 50.77 0.45 2.42 4.39 6.36 8.33
195.00 5.00 3.00 2.50 1.52 50.77 0.45 2.42 4.39 6.36 8.33
294.00 6.00 3.60 2.00 1.21 50.61 0.77 2.74 4.72 6.69 8.67
491.00 9.00 5.40 1.80 1.09 50.55 0.89 2.87 4.85 6.83 8.80
982.00 18.00 10.80 1.80 1.09 50.55 0.89 2.87 4.85 6.83 8.80
1970.00 30.00 18.00 1.50 0.91 50.46 1.08 3.06 5.04 7.02 9.00
4950.00 50.00 30.00 1.00 0.60 50.30 1.39 3.37 5.36 7.35 9.34

MPN

pp rake effective rake rake % effective % breakeven ROI 51% ROI 52% ROI 53% ROI 54% ROI 55%
5.00 0.20 0.14 3.85 2.72 51.40 -0.78 1.17 3.11 5.06 7.00
10.00 0.40 0.28 3.85 2.72 51.40 -0.78 1.17 3.11 5.06 7.00
20.00 0.80 0.56 3.85 2.72 51.40 -0.78 1.17 3.11 5.06 7.00
30.00 1.20 0.84 3.85 2.72 51.40 -0.78 1.17 3.11 5.06 7.00
50.00 2.00 1.40 3.85 2.72 51.40 -0.78 1.17 3.11 5.06 7.00
100.00 4.00 2.80 3.85 2.72 51.40 -0.78 1.17 3.11 5.06 7.00
200.00 5.00 3.50 2.44 1.72 50.88 0.25 2.21 4.18 6.14 8.11
300.00 7.50 5.25 2.44 1.72 50.88 0.25 2.21 4.18 6.14 8.11
500.00 10.00 7.00 1.96 1.38 50.70 0.59 2.56 4.54 6.51 8.48
1000.00 20.00 14.00 1.96 1.38 50.70 0.59 2.56 4.54 6.51 8.48
Notes:
  • Even with no rakeback on Stars, low-stakes rake there is better than or close to both iPoker and MPN with a rakeback deal
  • In particular, 7s are best on Stars
  • MPN again isn't competitive
  • iPoker again has the lowest nosebleeds rake and the highest stakes available
  • Play WPN unless you have 30% rakeback on Stars
  • If you do have 30% rakeback, Stars is best on all stakes it offers

6-max Hypers

pp, rake, effective rake, rake % and effective % are as for HUSNGs. There are three breakeven columns, indicating the ITM frequency needed to break even given that you headsup winrate is as indicated in the column header (e.g. the breakeven 50% column shows the ITM frequency needed to break even given that you finish first half of the time once you get headsup).

We assume the standard 65% / 35% payout structure.

The ROI columns show expected ROI for the given ITM frequency assuming a 50% headsup win frequency.

Stars

pp rake effective rake rake % effective % breakeven 45% breakeven 50% breakeven 55% ROI 35% ROI 36% ROI 37% ROI 38% ROI 39%
6.71 0.29 0.20 4.14 2.94 36.00 35.00 34.00 1.92 4.83 7.74 10.65 13.56
14.41 0.59 0.41 3.93 2.79 36.00 35.00 34.00 2.07 4.99 7.91 10.82 13.74
28.83 1.17 0.82 3.90 2.76 36.00 35.00 34.00 2.10 5.02 7.93 10.85 13.77
57.66 2.34 1.64 3.90 2.76 36.00 35.00 34.00 2.10 5.02 7.93 10.85 13.77
96.49 3.51 2.46 3.51 2.48 36.00 35.00 34.00 2.39 5.32 8.24 11.17 14.09
193.52 6.48 4.54 3.24 2.29 36.00 35.00 34.00 2.60 5.53 8.46 11.39 14.32
291.40 8.60 6.02 2.87 2.02 36.00 35.00 34.00 2.87 5.81 8.75 11.69 14.63
487.52 12.48 8.74 2.50 1.76 35.00 34.00 33.00 3.15 6.10 9.05 11.99 14.94
979.14 20.86 14.60 2.09 1.47 35.00 34.00 33.00 3.46 6.41 9.37 12.32 15.28

WPN

pp rake effective rake rake % effective % breakeven 45% breakeven 50% breakeven 55% ROI 35% ROI 36% ROI 37% ROI 38% ROI 39%
5.00 0.22 0.16 4.21 3.11 36.00 35.00 34.00 1.73 4.64 7.55 10.45 13.36
10.00 0.41 0.30 3.94 2.91 36.00 35.00 34.00 1.95 4.86 7.77 10.69 13.60
15.00 0.60 0.44 3.85 2.84 36.00 35.00 34.00 2.02 4.94 7.85 10.77 13.68
20.00 0.75 0.55 3.61 2.66 36.00 35.00 34.00 2.20 5.12 8.04 10.96 13.88
30.00 0.97 0.71 3.13 2.31 36.00 35.00 34.00 2.58 5.51 8.44 11.37 14.30
50.00 1.55 1.13 3.01 2.21 36.00 35.00 34.00 2.68 5.61 8.54 11.48 14.41
80.00 2.20 1.61 2.68 1.97 36.00 35.00 34.00 2.93 5.87 8.82 11.76 14.70
100.00 2.75 2.01 2.68 1.97 36.00 35.00 34.00 2.93 5.87 8.82 11.76 14.70

iPoker

pp rake effective rake rake % effective % breakeven 45% breakeven 50% breakeven 55% ROI 35% ROI 36% ROI 37% ROI 38% ROI 39%
ANY ANY ANY 8.00 4.96 37.00 36.00 35.00 -0.21 2.64 5.50 8.35 11.20

MPN

pp rake effective rake rake % effective % breakeven 45% breakeven 50% breakeven 55% ROI 35% ROI 36% ROI 37% ROI 38% ROI 39%
5.00 0.30 0.21 5.66 4.03 36.00 35.00 34.00 0.77 3.65 6.53 9.40 12.28
10.00 0.60 0.42 5.66 4.03 36.00 35.00 34.00 0.77 3.65 6.53 9.40 12.28
20.00 1.20 0.84 5.66 4.03 36.00 35.00 34.00 0.77 3.65 6.53 9.40 12.28
30.00 1.80 1.26 5.66 4.03 36.00 35.00 34.00 0.77 3.65 6.53 9.40 12.28
50.00 3.00 2.10 5.66 4.03 36.00 35.00 34.00 0.77 3.65 6.53 9.40 12.28
100.00 6.00 4.20 5.66 4.03 36.00 35.00 34.00 0.77 3.65 6.53 9.40 12.28
200.00 10.00 7.00 4.76 3.38 36.00 35.00 34.00 1.45 4.35 7.25 10.14 13.04
Notes:
  • There's no point in playing on iPoker or MPN since even with a rakeback deal, rake is higher than Stars with no rakeback whatsoever (unless winrate improvements can make up for the difference)
  • Rake on WPN is better than or equal to Stars at all stakes WPN offers (up to 100s).

Spin & Gos

The colums are as for the previous formats, execept that we add a pessimistic variant for most values. This gives the numbers assuming that multipliers with probability of < 1/10,000 aren't hit. Note that this is a fairly crude approximation (which penalizes some payout structures more than others) and subject to future improvements.

The ROI N% colums indicate expected ROI given an ITM frequency.

Stars

buyin rake rake % effective % pessimistic rake pessimistic rake % pessimistic effective % breakeven pessimistic breakeven ROI 35% ROI 36% ROI 37% ROI 38% ROI 39% pessimistic ROI 35% pessimistic ROI 36% pessimistic ROI 37% pessimistic ROI 38% pessimistic ROI 39%
7.00 0.49 7.00 5.01 0.55 7.80 5.59 35.09 35.39 -0.26 2.59 5.44 8.29 11.14 -1.11 1.71 4.54 7.36 0.10
15.00 0.90 6.00 4.28 1.02 6.80 4.86 34.82 35.12 0.51 3.38 6.25 9.12 12.00 -0.35 2.50 5.35 8.20 0.11
30.00 1.80 6.00 4.28 2.04 6.80 4.86 34.82 35.12 0.51 3.38 6.25 9.12 12.00 -0.35 2.50 5.35 8.20 0.11
60.00 3.00 5.00 3.55 3.48 5.80 4.13 34.56 34.85 1.27 4.16 7.06 9.95 12.84 0.42 3.29 6.15 9.02 0.12
100.00 5.00 5.00 3.55 5.80 5.80 4.13 34.56 34.85 1.27 4.16 7.06 9.95 12.84 0.42 3.29 6.15 9.02 0.12

WPN

buyin rake rake % effective % pessimistic rake pessimistic rake % pessimistic effective % breakeven pessimistic breakeven ROI 35% ROI 36% ROI 37% ROI 38% ROI 39% pessimistic ROI 35% pessimistic ROI 36% pessimistic ROI 37% pessimistic ROI 38% pessimistic ROI 39%
ANY ANY 6.00 4.45 0.14 7.17 5.33 34.89 35.32 0.33 3.19 6.06 8.92 11.79 -0.92 1.91 4.74 7.57 0.10

iPoker

buyin rake rake % effective % pessimistic rake pessimistic rake % pessimistic effective % breakeven pessimistic breakeven ROI 35% ROI 36% ROI 37% ROI 38% ROI 39% pessimistic ROI 35% pessimistic ROI 36% pessimistic ROI 37% pessimistic ROI 38% pessimistic ROI 39%
ANY ANY 7.13 4.40 0.09 9.13 5.69 34.87 35.64 0.38 3.24 6.11 8.98 11.85 -1.79 1.02 3.83 6.63 0.09
  • iPoker is best for lowstakes spins. Also the antes mean that the games will play less deep headsup, which is easier to learn
  • Once you have rakeback, Stars is best at all stakes above 7s
  • WPN is very close to Stars and offers the possibility to make deals in the highest multipliers
  • It's probably optimal to start out on iPoker, then move to WPN and finally to Stars once you're rolled for 60s

Conclusion

So that's it for now. Stars still has the lowest effective rake overall (if you have a high VIP level) and is fairly competitive even without any rakeback in most cases.
For casual players, WPN is probably the best option (very close to Stars but no volume requirement for rakeback).
For low stakes spins, give iPoker a try.
MPN isn't interesting unless your winrate there is substantially better than on the other sites.

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